April 14, 1998: As part of his recently completed Ph.D. study, John Nyboer, Executive Director of Simon Fraser University’s Canadian Industrial Energy End-Use Data and Analysis Centre (CIEEDAC) has developed the Intras-Sectoral Technology Use Model (ISTUM) for assessing the impact of various policy options on industrial emissions of carbon dioxide.

Models intended for this purpose, which extrapolate future trends from historical data, already exist. However, unlike these, so-called, top-down models, Nyboer’s model is a bottom-up, or engineering, model, which projects the future by analyzing changes in industrial technology. The model has already been used to analyze energy use in the Canadian residential and commercial sectors, as well as in eight industrial sub-sectors in seven regions (the Atlantic provinces taken together plus the other six provinces). The industrial sub-sectors include chemicals, mining, iron and steel, metal smelting and a catch-all for other manufacturing. Sub-models have been developed for some specialty products and processes including wood products, lime and aluminum smelting. A transportation model is currently under development.

With the aid of analyses performed with these models, the aim is to develop the most cost-effective approaches to carbon dioxide emission reductions mandated by the 1997 Kyoto agreement. The results will be applicable both in determining government regulatory policy and in guiding industry in meeting emission reduction goals.

Run-time copies of Nyboer’s model are available at no charge upon request from the author. The source code, in APL, is also available.

In conjunction with their analytical work, CIEEDAC and four other Canadian University centers have established energy use data bases in various industrial sectors. The other centers are:

• The Automobile Mobility Data Compedium (CDMA), Université de Laval
• The Canadian Agricultural Energy End-Use Data and Analysis Centre (CAEDAC), University of Saskatchewan
• The Canadian Commercial Energy End-Use Data and Analysis Centre (CCEEDAC), McMaster University, and
• The Canadian Residential Energy End-Use Data and Analysis Centre (CREEDAC), Technical University of Nova Scotia.

These centers, now primarily funded by Natural Resources Canada, a department of the Federal Government of Canada, offer consulting and analytical services to industry and government. Reports on completed studies are available on the Web.

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